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Multiple factors may affect industry performance, risk, innovation, and sustainability in coming years, such as long-term economic trends, patent expiration, demographic shifts, and regulatory issues.
Available industry-wide prediction frameworks have limited capabilities. Therefore, the need for a robust forecasting methodology based on simulation modeling and covering the entire industry portfolio predictions could not be underestimated.
The industry forecasting simulation model utilizes available data about each drug/indication in the R&D pipeline and transforms it into a set of metrics characterizing future industry performance.
The industry-wide portfolio simulation model was developed to address short- and long-term portfolio productivity forecasting challenges. The model is drug–centric. It simulates the drug development workflow process.
The model also incorporates multiple business rules related to the interdependence between drugs. The model predicted a 2016 drop in NME approvals based on 2014 data. Other modeling experiments include analysis of industry sustainability and innovation strategy, the impact of approval rates and likelihood on the variations of clinical trials cycle time, probabilities of success, and FDA approval cycle time.
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ORBee Consulting offers tools for strategic and operational planning in the biopharmaceutical industry, leveraging operations research techniques for optimization, simulation, statistical analysis, and analytical decision-making.
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